Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 107.257539 122.350233 139.248000 159.650934 183.726942 211.365011 245.682469
2026-02-01 84.741527 103.329471 125.883946 155.547422 193.950566 242.565169 309.689920
2026-02-08 70.620023 90.417149 115.914425 151.697911 201.493160 269.663955 372.422399
2026-02-15 60.898122 81.026106 108.208274 148.418428 207.818183 294.707045 436.051368
2026-02-22 57.068912 78.698299 109.237557 156.741847 231.110989 347.282246 551.477954
2026-03-01 52.194695 74.110449 106.207617 158.273745 243.899124 385.466658 651.946715
2026-03-08 48.303786 70.401030 103.847905 160.218170 257.241796 426.451528 766.631965
2026-03-15 44.595124 66.497874 100.625301 160.133676 266.852767 462.297560 880.142819
2026-03-22 43.086683 65.819808 102.350033 168.423237 292.338594 531.894552 1080.892135
2026-03-29 41.464903 64.752689 103.246783 175.275451 316.158561 602.949448 1306.258580
2026-04-05 39.797944 63.417878 103.492021 180.886784 338.389234 675.268656 1558.005021
2026-04-12 37.637024 61.024417 101.606903 182.173465 351.960959 731.527464 1788.030502
2026-04-19 35.331523 58.257027 98.918063 181.852602 362.789890 785.643914 2037.693166
2026-04-26 32.747028 54.777319 94.591946 177.723446 364.666569 819.069403 2241.656019
2026-05-03 30.409591 51.548419 90.424574 173.393239 365.377832 849.872176 2450.998938
2026-05-10 28.377658 48.712783 86.735383 169.597391 366.685859 882.569088 2681.282416
2026-05-17 28.043301 49.014273 89.171535 179.381462 402.778563 1020.138351 3354.921324
2026-05-24 26.879022 47.631397 88.104317 181.185699 419.090583 1105.512738 3878.753807
2026-05-31 25.853992 46.434150 87.296013 183.472450 437.128105 1201.472330 4506.478924
2026-06-07 24.688040 44.867427 85.572389 183.373458 448.688640 1280.351123 5110.163931
2026-06-14 24.456871 45.152984 87.792945 193.127063 490.054962 1472.920334 6420.091786
2026-06-21 24.073187 45.092867 89.253719 201.201103 528.378043 1669.291280 7936.472905
2026-06-28 23.583050 44.770550 90.099053 207.820620 563.833072 1869.006894 9683.874112